{"id":50317,"date":"2020-03-24T05:34:36","date_gmt":"2020-03-24T05:34:36","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2022-05-25T20:19:33","modified_gmt":"2022-05-25T20:19:33","slug":"suru-bagisikligi-ile-coronavirus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/teknomanyak.com\/tr\/2020\/03\/24\/suru-bagisikligi-ile-coronavirus\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00fcr\u00fc Ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile Coronavir\u00fcs Salg\u0131n\u0131 Durabilir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Coronavir\u00fcs<\/strong> i\u00e7in s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 geli\u015firse yani yeterli say\u0131da insan hasta olursa bu hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilebilir ancak bunun \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Covid-19<\/strong> salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 y\u00f6ntemle durdurulabilir.&nbsp;Bunlardan biri ki\u015filer aras\u0131nda ileti\u015fimi tamamen keserek vir\u00fcs\u00fcn yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek, \u00e7ok say\u0131da test yapmak ve agresif \u00f6nlemler almak. Ancak, 100&#8217;den fazla \u00fclkeye yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in art\u0131k bu biraz imkans\u0131z olabilir. \u0130kincisi herkesi koruyabilen <strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/615331\/a-coronavirus-vaccine-will-take-at-least-18-monthsif-it-works-at-all\/\" target=\"_blank\">bir a\u015f\u0131 geli\u015ftirerek<\/a>.<\/strong> Bunun da k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Ve son olarak potansiyel olarak etkin ama olduk\u00e7a \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc bir y\u00f6ntem olan toplumda s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 geli\u015ftirmek. Yani, \u00e7ok say\u0131da insan\u0131n v\u00fccuduna bu vir\u00fcs\u00fcn enfekte olmas\u0131na izin vermek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>E\u011fer <strong>Coronavir\u00fcs<\/strong> yani<strong> Covid-19<\/strong> yay\u0131lmaya devam ederse nihayetinde bir\u00e7ok insan enfekte olmu\u015f olacak ve hayatta kal\u0131rlarsa \u00e7ok say\u0131da insan ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kazanacak. <strong>Coronavir\u00fcs<\/strong> de duyarl\u0131 konak bulmakta zorlanaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kendi kendine yok olacak. \u0130\u015fte bu fenomene <strong>s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong> deniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bilim insanlar\u0131 t\u00fcm al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlere ra\u011fmen y\u0131l sonuna kadar <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/615358\/worst-case-coronavirus-scenario-214-million-americans-infected-17-million-dead\/\">d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun y\u00fczde 60&#8217;\u0131n\u0131n Coronavir\u00fcs ile enfekte olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/a><\/strong> \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.&nbsp;Bu rakamlar rastgele bir tahmin de\u011fil. \u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden epidemiyologlar bu vir\u00fcs i\u00e7in s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n devreye girmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde \u0130ngiltere Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 <strong>Boris Johnson<\/strong>&#8216;\u0131n toplumda s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 geli\u015ftirmenin ve ciddi \u00f6nlemler almaman\u0131n resmi stratejileri olabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck yank\u0131 uyand\u0131rd\u0131. Bu fikri h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ba\u015f bilim dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 <strong>Patrick Vallance<\/strong> \u015fu ifadelerle destekliyordu: &#8220;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vox.com\/world\/2020\/3\/15\/21180414\/coronavirus-uk-herd-immunity-vallance-johnson\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bir \u00e7e\u015fit s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 in\u015fa etmemiz gerekiyor<\/a><\/strong>, b\u00f6ylece daha fazla insan\u0131n bu hastal\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131k olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir ve aktar\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 azaltabiliriz.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Daha sonra bu a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n bir benzeri de Hollanda Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 <strong>Mark Rutte<\/strong>&#8216;dan geldi. Rutte, <strong>Coronavir\u00fcs<\/strong>&#8216;\u00fcn yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kontroll\u00fc bir \u015fekilde in\u015fa edebileceklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancak, yap\u0131lan modellere g\u00f6re s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na hemen ba\u015fvurmak felaket bir strateji olacak. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir\u00e7ok insan a\u011f\u0131r hastalanacak, hastanelere ve yo\u011fun bak\u0131mlara \u00e7ok yo\u011fun bir ihtiya\u00e7 olacak ve sa\u011fl\u0131k sistemi buna cevap veremeyece\u011finden y\u00fcz binlerce, belki de milyonlarca insan \u00f6lecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu senaryolardan sonra \u0130ngiltere, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/f\/615369\/uk-dropping-coronavirus-herd-immunity-strategy-250000-dead\/\">vir\u00fcs\u00fcn yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyici tedbirler<\/a><\/strong> almaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, yay\u0131l\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmak sa\u011fl\u0131k sistemini koruyarak daha fazla hayat kurtarmak anlam\u0131na geliyor. Ancak eninde sonunda sonu\u00e7 ayn\u0131 olabilir. Yani pandemi zamanla azalsa bile, tamamen sona erdirmek i\u00e7in toplumsal ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n kazan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u015fart olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gelen tepkilerden sonra \u0130ngiltere Sa\u011fl\u0131k ve Sosyal Bak\u0131m Sekreteri Matt Hancock, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/health\/archive\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-pandemic-herd-immunity-uk-boris-johnson\/608065\/\">\u0130ngiltere h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefi ya da politikas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/a><\/strong> ancak bunun bilimsel bir kavram oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>S\u00fcr\u00fc Ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Tam Olarak Nedir?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"750\" height=\"297\" src=\"https:\/\/www.teknomanyak.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-suru-bagisikligi-turkce.png\" alt=\"S\u00fcr\u00fc Ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Nedir?\" class=\"wp-image-50321\" srcset=\"https:\/\/teknomanyak.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-suru-bagisikligi-turkce.png 750w, https:\/\/teknomanyak.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-suru-bagisikligi-turkce-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/teknomanyak.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-suru-bagisikligi-turkce-320x127.png 320w, https:\/\/teknomanyak.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-suru-bagisikligi-turkce-640x253.png 640w, https:\/\/teknomanyak.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-suru-bagisikligi-turkce-360x143.png 360w, https:\/\/teknomanyak.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-suru-bagisikligi-turkce-720x285.png 720w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" \/><figcaption><strong><em>S\u00fcr\u00fc Ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Nedir?<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>N\u00fcfusun yeterli k\u0131sm\u0131nda bir mikroba kar\u015f\u0131 diren\u00e7 olu\u015ftu\u011funda, mikronun yay\u0131lmas\u0131 do\u011fal olarak durur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yeterli say\u0131da insan vir\u00fcs\u00fc iletemez. Bu nedenle, hen\u00fcz ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmayan bireylerde vir\u00fcs dola\u015f\u0131mda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in &#8220;s\u00fcr\u00fc&#8221; ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131k olurlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Her ne kadar, enfeksiyon ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 civar\u0131nda tahmin edilen \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131 olan<strong> Coronavir\u00fcs<\/strong> taraf\u0131ndan enfekte olan milyarlar\u0131n (hastanede yatan yo\u011fun bak\u0131m vakalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek) ortaya \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131 sonucu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek korkun\u00e7 olsa da,&nbsp; \u00f6nceki benzer salg\u0131nlarda s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren kan\u0131tlar g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda do\u011fum anormalliklerine yol a\u00e7an ve bir salg\u0131n pani\u011fine neden olan sivrisinek kaynakl\u0131 bir hastal\u0131k olan <strong>Zika<\/strong> vir\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2017&#8217;ye gelindi\u011fine de art\u0131k endi\u015felenecek \u00e7ok fazla \u015fey yoktu. <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Brezilya'da yap\u0131lan bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma (yeni sekmede a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r)\" href=\"https:\/\/mbio.asm.org\/content\/8\/6\/e01390-17.full\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Brezilya&#8217;da yap\u0131lan bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma<\/strong><\/a>, kan \u00f6rneklerini kontrol ederek kuzeydo\u011fu sahil kenti <strong>Salvador&#8217;daki n\u00fcfusun %63&#8217;\u00fcn\u00fcn zaten Zika&#8217;ya maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/strong> ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bu salg\u0131n\u0131 bozdu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A\u015f\u0131lar, yayg\u0131n olarak verildi\u011finde veya bazen nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir enfeksiyon vakas\u0131n\u0131n etraf\u0131ndaki bir \u201chalkada\u201d uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. \u00c7i\u00e7ek hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi hastal\u0131klar bu \u015fekilde ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131 ve \u00e7ocuk felci d\u00fcnyadan silinmeye yak\u0131n. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/615331\/a-coronavirus-vaccine-will-take-at-least-18-monthsif-it-works-at-all\/\"><strong>Coronavir\u00fcs i\u00e7in  de \u00e7e\u015fitli a\u015f\u0131 \u00e7abalar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/strong><\/a>, ancak bir y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcre haz\u0131r olmayabilirler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A\u015f\u0131 \u00fcreticileri, s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftiren a\u015f\u0131y\u0131 bulmak i\u00e7in bir yar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7ine girebilir ve bu ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k a\u015f\u0131 olmadan toplumda geli\u015firse, geli\u015ftirdikleri a\u015f\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k faydas\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131ndan daha do\u011frusu ticari olarak bir de\u011feri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan a\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretmekten vazge\u00e7ebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2017&#8217;de ila\u00e7 \u00fcreticisi Sanofi, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC3171704\/\"><strong>Zika a\u015f\u0131s\u0131 program\u0131na son verdi<\/strong><\/a> \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ticari olarak a\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in ortada bir neden kalmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Coronavir\u00fcs yeni ve bu y\u00fczden hen\u00fcz hi\u00e7 kimse ona kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k g\u00f6stermedi. Bu y\u00fczden h\u0131zla yay\u0131l\u0131yor ve \u00e7ok say\u0131da insanda ciddi etkiler yapabiliyor.  S\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in insanlar enfekte olduktan sonra diren\u00e7li hale gelmelidir. Bu bir\u00e7ok mikrop i\u00e7in b\u00f6yledir. Enfekte olup iyile\u015fen insanlar daha sonra ayn\u0131 hastal\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kazan\u0131rlar. Bunun sebebi, ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k sistemlerinin vir\u00fcs\u00fc yenebilen antikorlarla y\u00fckl\u00fc olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/opsdashboard\/index.html#\/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6\"><strong>D\u00fcnyada yakla\u015f\u0131k 80.000 ki\u015fi zaten Coronavir\u00fcs (Covid-19) hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan iyile\u015fti<\/strong><\/a> ve ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k derecesi bilinmese de, \u015fimdi diren\u00e7li olmalar\u0131 muhtemel. <strong>Maryland \u00dcniversitesi<\/strong>&#8216;nde bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131 hastal\u0131k uzman\u0131 olan <strong>Myron Levine<\/strong>, \u201c\u0130nsanlar ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kazanmazsa tamamen \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmam. Grip gibi baz\u0131 vir\u00fcsler de\u011fi\u015fmenin yani mutasyona u\u011framan\u0131n yollar\u0131n\u0131 buluyor, bu nedenle bu t\u00fcr mevsimsel mikroplara kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k tam olarak olmayabilir&#8221; diyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Coronavir\u00fcs S\u00fcr\u00fc Ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na Ne Zaman Ula\u015fabilir?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>S\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z nokta, matemati\u011fin mikroplar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011falma say\u0131s\u0131 veya <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/615364\/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-projections-united-states-italy\/\"><strong>R0 olarak ifade edilen yay\u0131lma e\u011filimi <\/strong><\/a>ile ili\u015fkili. Coronavir\u00fcs i\u00e7in R0, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imperial.ac.uk\/media\/imperial-college\/medicine\/sph\/ide\/gida-fellowships\/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf\"><strong>2 ila 2.5 aras\u0131nda<\/strong><\/a>, bilim insanlar\u0131 bula\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nleyici tedbirler yoksa enfekte olmu\u015f her ki\u015finin onu yakla\u015f\u0131k iki ki\u015fiye ge\u00e7irdi\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>S\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hayal etmek i\u00e7in, duyarl\u0131 bir pop\u00fclasyonda bu \u015fekilde \u00e7o\u011falan <strong>Coronavir\u00fcs<\/strong> vakalar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, vb. Ancak insanlar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131ksa, bu enfeksiyonlar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 hi\u00e7 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmez ve b\u00f6ylece yay\u0131lma h\u0131z\u0131 etkili bir \u015fekilde ikiye d\u00fc\u015fer. <strong>Bilim Medya Merkezi<\/strong>&#8216;ne g\u00f6re, salg\u0131n bu rakamlara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kaybolur: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencemediacentre.org\/expert-comments-about-herd-immunity\/\"><strong>1, 1, 1, 1\u2026<\/strong><\/a> Ve salg\u0131n, enfeksiyon oran\u0131 1&#8217;den az oldu\u011funda sonlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Coranavir\u00fcs<\/strong>&#8216;\u00fcn yay\u0131lma oran\u0131 gripten daha y\u00fcksek, ancak daha \u00f6nce d\u00fcnyay\u0131 silip s\u00fcp\u00fcren <strong>Influenza<\/strong> salg\u0131nlar\u0131na benzetiliyor.  <strong>Harvard \u00dcniversitesi Epidemiyolo\u011fu Marc Lipsitch<\/strong>, &#8220;Bu, 1918 salg\u0131n\u0131na benziyor. Yani bu salg\u0131n\u0131n sonunu, ya hemen ufukta olmayan bir a\u015f\u0131 ya da n\u00fcfusun yakla\u015f\u0131k %50&#8217;sinin enfeksiyona kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131k olmas\u0131 getirecek&#8221; diyerek d\u00fcnyadaki uzmanlar\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/externalmediasite.partners.org\/Mediasite\/Play\/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d?fbclid=IwAR0LH6aEbjwNeW0txxFH2ItnixksVs8y-SkZBXOzf-8L980CwYi3yCf7kUs\"><strong>video konferansa \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir vir\u00fcs ne kadar bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131ysa, s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in o kadar daha fazla insan\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kazanmas\u0131 gerekir. 12&#8217;den b\u00fcy\u00fck bir R0 ile en kolay bula\u015fan hastal\u0131klardan biri olan k\u0131zam\u0131ktan korunmak i\u00e7in insanlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %90&#8217;\u0131n\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131k olmas\u0131 gerekir. Bu nedenle, az say\u0131da insan bile k\u0131zam\u0131k a\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7ti\u011finde yeni salg\u0131nlar ba\u015flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Benzer \u015fekilde, <strong>Coronavir\u00fcs<\/strong> uzmanlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha kolay yay\u0131l\u0131rsa, s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131lmadan \u00f6nce \u00e7ok daha fazla insan\u0131n bu vir\u00fcse kar\u015f\u0131 diren\u00e7 geli\u015ftirmesi gerekiyor. 3&#8217;l\u00fck bir R0 i\u00e7in, \u00f6rne\u011fin en basit modele g\u00f6re, <a href=\"ttps:\/\/www.sciencemediacentre.org\/expert-comments-about-herd-immunity\/\"><strong>n\u00fcfusun %66&#8217;s\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k<\/strong><\/a> kazanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ster %50,  %60 veya %80 olsun, Coronavirus d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda milyarlarca ki\u015fiye enfekte olursa, milyonlarca insan \u00f6lm\u00fc\u015f olacak. Bu y\u00fczden pandemi ne kadar yava\u015f olursa, yeni tedavilerin veya a\u015f\u0131lar\u0131n yard\u0131mc\u0131 olma \u015fans\u0131 o kadar artar. \u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden salg\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131l\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in evde kalmam\u0131z olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemli!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130ngiltere&#8217;de geli\u015ftirilen en yeni epidemiyolojik modeller, vir\u00fcs\u00fcn agresif \u201cbask\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131\u201d \u00f6neriyor. Temel taktik, hasta insanlar\u0131 izole etmek, sosyal temaslar\u0131 %75 azaltmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak ve okullar\u0131 kapatmak olacak. Bu ekonomik maliyeti olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek olan \u00f6nlemler <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/615370\/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months\/\"><strong>aylarca s\u00fcrebilir.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Imperial College London<\/strong>&#8216;dan gelen yeni salg\u0131n modelinin ba\u015f epidemiyolo\u011fu <strong>Azra Ghani<\/strong>, \u201cAktar\u0131m\u0131n bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fturmayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anlam\u0131na geliyor.  Milyonlarca insan\u0131n \u00f6lmemesi i\u00e7in bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye \u00e7ekmeli ve o \u015fekilde tutmal\u0131y\u0131z\u201d diyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u0130lginizi \u00c7ekebilir:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.teknomanyak.com\/saglik\/sigara-sadece-akcigerlere-degil-gozlere-de-zarar-veriyor.html\"><strong>Sigara Sadece Akci\u011ferlere De\u011fil, G\u00f6zlere de Zarar Veriyor<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Kaynak: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/s\/615375\/what-is-herd-immunity-and-can-it-stop-the-coronavirus\/\">What is herd immunity and can it stop the coronavirus?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Coronavir\u00fcs i\u00e7in s\u00fcr\u00fc ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 geli\u015firse yani yeterli say\u0131da insan hasta olursa bu hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilebilir ancak bunun \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":50327,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"episode_type":"","audio_file":"","cover_image":"","cover_image_id":"","duration":"","filesize":"","date_recorded":"","explicit":"","block":"","filesize_raw":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[140],"tags":[10670,10097],"class_list":["post-50317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel-kultur","tag-coronavirus-2","tag-suru-bagisikligi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>S\u00fcr\u00fc Ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile Coronavir\u00fcs Salg\u0131n\u0131 Durabilir mi? - TeknomanyaK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coronavir\u00fcs i\u00e7in s\u00fcr\u00fc 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